What is the real estate moderation sales say

unduhan-4For those that follow Sarasota Real Estate Market activity in the media, it’s not new news to you that the pace of sales has clearly retracted through most of 2016.  However, conversely, keeping up with the brisk tempo of the last two record-setting years might be cause for some concern, given the still limited growth in inventory.  Homebuilder confidence once again rose this month, according to the National Association of Homebuilders, which is great news as it is the new construction that has had the greatest impact on the market this year.

As mentioned in my last month’s Moulton Sarasota Real Estate Report, new home sales are not recorded with the Association of Realtors as all other data is, so it is difficult to have an accurate count of just how many new homes are being completed and sold.  Last week John Hielscher of the Herald Tribune reported that new home starts in the Sarasota Real Estate Market have grown 43.6% over the prior year.  Industry experts estimate that new home availability is about 4.5-months of supply, nearly the same as our existing home reserve.

While market reports indicate that total transactions in the Sarasota Real Estate Market fell over 22% last month, when adding the increase in new home construction and sales, and eliminating distressed transactions form the calculations, I do not believe that the moderating pace of sales is quite as dramatic as the number appears.

Within months, literally thousands of new condominiums, single-family homes and rental homes will be completed in our region, and looking at the Sarasota Real Estate Market conditions, I see a healthy environment and most certainly a sustainable one.

Sales

As mentioned, Sarasota Real Estate Market transaction fell more than 22% in July.  But if you remove the substantial decline in the distressed market, the “traditional” sales fell at a much less alarming level of 15.5%.  Indeed, the number is still worthy of a raised eyebrow, however, as I have said, I feel that new home/condo inventory is growing at a healthy pace now and is keeping real estate, one of our area’s most important economic drivers and employment sources, on an upward track.

When taking the sales activity and slicing it by price tier, the largest decline – about 26% – was in the under $200,000 category.  At the luxury level where most of my activity takes place (above $1 million), sales decreased about 18%.  Year-to-date, all sales in Sarasota’s Real Estate Market have fallen less than 8%.

  • Sarasota is averaging monthly sales in 2016 of $301.4 million vs. $277.4 million in 2015. July saw $311.1 million in transactions, 14% less than July 2015.
  • The monthly average of single family sales this year is 581 vs. 613 in 2015 and for condos the monthly sales are 281 vs. 297 last year through July.
  • Single-family sales last month were down 22% from prior year, and down 14% from June 2016.
  • Condominium sales were down 25% from last year in July and about 28% less than June.
    • S. real estate sales decreased 10.9% in July.
    • Florida’s housing transactions saw single-family home sales fall 8% compared to last year and condo sales were down 11.5%.
  • All cash sales in Sarasota continue to be strong with 34% of single-family and 59% of condos sales closed without a mortgage.
    • On a national scale, all cash sales were 21% of total sales.
  • Distressed sales were only 6.2% of total sales, compared to 12% last year.

Note:  Some analysts have suggested that because July had five weekends and only 20 business days during which closings would be scheduled, the unusual calendar event may have contributed to the more significant drop in sales compared to other months of 2016.

Prices

Once again, the Sarasota Real Estate Market showed impressive price growth.  Though we have fallen a bit from the heady 20+% year-over-year increases of last year, again this moderation is a sign of health and market stability.

  • In July, Sarasota’s single-family homes were sold at a median price of $242,500 vs. $219,500 a year ago, an increase of nearly 9.5%. The year to date monthly median average was $212,536 vs. $182,200 last year.
  • Condominium median sale price grew to $205,000, an increase of 8% over July 2015.
    • Florida median price for a single-family home is reported to be up 11.6% over last year, to $223,000, and condo median prices increased 6.8% to $160,000.
    • Nationally, median prices for all homes rose 5.3%.
  • The average sale price for houses in Sarasota was $335,617 in July vs. $308,356 a year ago, a 8.8% increase.
  • Sarasota’s condominiums sold for an average price of $325,238 vs. $275,700 a year ago, an 18% increase.
  • Sarasota homes sold at 95% of the list price.